Helmholtz Study: Roadmap for the Energy Transition by 2045

Germany’s energy transition by 2045 faces complex challenges: Current scenarios often consider only technical and economic factors, while overlooking social and institutional aspects. This limited view can lead to unrealistic planning and decision-making, thereby jeopardizing public acceptance of the transformation. Researchers from KIT, DLR and Forschungszentrum Jülich have developed an integrative scenario methodology that incorporates key sustainability dimensions into the assessment of the energy transition. Their analysis of four distinct scenarios shows that electricity demand will nearly double by 2045 and that installed renewable energy capacity will have to more than triple. The core strategy is the electrification of production and transport processes, complemented by green hydrogen and more flexible power grids. The study also takes into account socio-economic side effects such as structural change in energy-intensive industries and potential burdens on low-income households. This provides decision-makers with a more realistic basis for the sustainable overhaul of the German energy system.